I was a member for 6 months, explored Phil's advice and followed his opinions and predictions. I felt that he did not really explain the essential elements of investing judgment and was unclear about the time frame of his investment advice. I found his economic predictions and analysis to be stilted and thin, bordering on trivial, and useless for investing. I agree with his general understanding of the manipulation and corruption of the market, but this is not sufficient to be predictive. And while Phil claims that he's not in the prediction business this is not true: investing is successful only to the extent that one can make correct predictions, and know the know the probability of error associated with those predictions.
Phil is basically to investing as a liberal-minded host would be to talk radio. I did enjoy his political rants, but even there, as I learn more history, I see him doing more grandstanding than educating.
I recall he once lambasted a republican member who referred to the money-losing US Post Office as indicative of the waste in government. Phil responded that the person was foolish because they didn't know the post office was subsidized in order to make mail affordable and to provide postal service to everyone. It turns out Phil was wrong: the US Post Office is a fiscal wreck, nearing insolvency, and is not meant to subsist on Federal bailouts. What's more, government postal services in other countries are being creative and profitable and the USPO is an especially bad example of how to run a postal service. This information would have been available to Phil if he'd done some research, but he rarely does. And when confronted with contrary facts his usual response is ad hominum to the extreme.
Basically according to Phil, if you don't tow Phil's line you're an ass hole and he encourages you to leave his forum. I should add that my politics are probably quite far to the LEFT of Phil's and I don't think he goes far enough in calling for reform. That being said, I feel that if one is going to be a public voice one should be a responsible one.
There are several habits of his that are less than forthright. He brooked little criticism, terminated members who suspected he engaged in "smoke and mirrors," and never kept track of the success or failure of his advice/investment opinions. That was too much work, he said.
His basic philosophy is to create synthetic options positions and to sell OTM calls to collect time premium. But he does not educate people about the extra risks that this leverage involves, and the variety of strategies one needs to know when events turn against you. His strategies look good in the present time frame, but when things turn sour down the road he's no longer available to explain himself or take the blame.
Having said that, I do think that if you're going to be a long-term investor then you must know how to sell option time premium and the benefits of selling off the less likely extremely large gains by selling OTM call options. That being said, however, selling options adds a different element of time frame risk that requires a better understanding of probabilities, of PREDICTION, than I felt was reflected anywhere in Phil's Stock World.
Finally, I feel Phil stuffs his site with people who claim to be winners using his approach. I was suspicious of this from the start as these people are poorly identified, they're just voices on the web. Some of them were day traders who would post a running tab on their winnings and issue buy/sell recommendations in what looked like a manner that another trader might find useful.
I have since become a day trader myself and I am offended that Phil allows people who claim to day trade to post their recommendations. Day trading is difficult and risky, and timing is everything. It would be very difficult to post day trading signals "off the cuff." To do so without a proper analysis of the risks that you see in each trade is irresponsible.
Phil did not seem to either know this or care about it. It gave his site the appearance of being a band of winners. Given that his advice was useless, and generated quite regular losses for me, his membership policies prejudicial, and his sense of responsibility to readers weak to nil, I advise against membership.
If you do join, and there are things that can be learned, then do not follow any suggestion or advice that you do not fully understand. It is my claim that if you are careful and thorough you will not find useful investment advice in Phil's Stock World.
This review is the subjective opinion of an Investimonials member and not of Investimonials LLC
3 of 5 people have found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful?
Yes
No