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Microsoft (MSFT)

May 14, 2015

I worry about analysts.

Deutsche Bank just upgraded Microsoft from a Buy to a Hold with a $55 price target.  They believe a weak PC market is already priced in, and that investor enthusiasm is returning over Azure and Office 365.  I have yet to see or hear any one enthusiastic about a soft PC market, though.

Deutsche also believes the stock reflects discount…. You know, as the stock challenges an all-time high at double top resistance. 

How do I get a job as an overpaid analyst without a clue?


Here’s what aggravates me about the “enthusiasm.”

Intel just announced that it expects the PC market to remain challenging this year with mid-single digit declines in the overall market. 

The only thing I’m enthusiastic about here is how much we can make from MSFT downside.  Not only is MSFT challenging double top resistance points, RSI is pivoting from overbought levels above its 70-line.  Money Flow has already reversed off its highs at 80-line.  And MACD hasn’t been this high in years.

The best way to profit from MSFT is by buying to open the MSFT July 2015 48 put.

Best wishes… Ian

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